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Clients

Every client you've run through the model, with a link back into their analysis.

New client

The basics — enough to set the workflow in motion.

used only if this client's federal tax estimate is turned on (Tax Profile tab — on by default)

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saved

A snapshot of where this client stands, and quick links into each area.

Financial Assets

What the client has available today to fund every goal below.

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total investable assets

Liabilities

Mortgages, loans, and other debts — used for the net worth summary only, not for goal funding or discounting.

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total liabilities

Income

Social Security, pensions, paychecks — anything that offsets what the portfolio needs to provide, for as long as it lasts. Leave "end year" blank for income that continues for life.

Tax Profile

Drives the federal tax estimate used in Monte Carlo and the Detailed Cash Flow tab — on by default for every client. Withdrawals are sequenced taxable first, then traditional, then Roth last; Roth withdrawals are tax-free, traditional withdrawals (including RMDs) are fully ordinary-taxable, and taxable-account withdrawals are also treated as fully ordinary-taxable for now, since the tool doesn't yet track cost basis or capital gains.

Ordinary federal brackets only — no state tax, capital gains, IRMAA, or AMT. Taxable and traditional withdrawals are treated as ordinary-taxable; Roth withdrawals are tax-free.

Core lifestyle goals can cover sequential phases (e.g. years 1–10, then 11–30) or run simultaneously (e.g. general spending alongside a separate healthcare goal with its own inflation rate) — each with its own rolling protected-years window: at every point in time, the next N years of that goal's spending sit in risk-managing assets, no matter how far off they are today. Every other goal is capped at the household horizon and priced off the glidepath.

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Household summary

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total investable assets
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total present value across all goals
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funding ratio — investable assets ÷ total present value of goals
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expected return used in discounting — blended by today's allocation

Recommended Portfolio Allocation

risk-managing —return-generating —
GoalPVAssetsFunded
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Projected allocation over time

The household's actual blended mix of return-generating vs. risk-managing assets, projected forward year by year as each goal is funded and drops out of the mix. Derived directly from the goals on file — not a generic reference curve.
return-generating risk-managing
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Minimum volatility portfolio

For households that are meaningfully overfunded: the lowest expected return that still fully funds every goal, and the resulting allocation — a look at how conservative the portfolio could become.
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Monte Carlo projection

Simulates many possible market paths using the projected allocation glide path above and the return/volatility assumptions on file, withdrawing each year's scheduled goal spending along the way as it comes due.
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probability of fully funding every goal
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median ending balance
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simulated market paths
5th–95th percentile range median path
YearBottom 5%Bottom 25%MedianTop 25%Top 5%
Each column is computed independently for that year, not tracked along a single path — once enough paths have failed, the lower columns can sit at zero for many years while the upper columns are still climbing, since only the strongest-performing paths remain in play.
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Year-by-year goals report

Every dollar of scheduled spending across the household's horizon, by year and category — including ongoing goals and single-year goals alike. A dash means no goal in that category has a need that year.
YearCore Lifestyle*DiscretionaryFamilyPhilanthropyTotal
* Net of any income sources (Social Security, pensions, paychecks) used to offset that spending. Other categories are shown gross.
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Detailed cash flow

Year-by-year sources and uses: beginning portfolio value, each income source, each goal's distribution, and the resulting net cash flow — a negative figure in a given year means that year's spending exceeded income and had to be drawn from the portfolio. The ending value reflects the household's median Monte Carlo path for that year, which also accounts for investment performance.
Builds and downloads a landscape PDF report directly — cover page, methodology, client data, and results, with the GoalPath logo and page numbers on every page.
Illustrative model only, not investment, tax or planning advice. Replace the glidepath curve and capital-market assumptions with a firm's own governed inputs before client use.

Capital market assumptions

Shared across every client. Changing these updates the discounting and glidepath math the next time you view a client's results.

Used only for the Monte Carlo projection on a client's results page. Risk-managing volatility here is treated as inclusive of cash, consistent with how cash is folded into risk-managing everywhere else in the app.
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Federal Tax Reference

Not editable — sourced from IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32 (tax year 2026) and Treasury Reg. §1.401(a)(9)-9 / Pub. 590-B. This is exactly what the app uses internally whenever a client's federal tax estimate is turned on (Tax Profile tab, per client — on by default), including required minimum distributions.

Profile

Your contact details and sign-in settings.

Contact information

How your name and firm appear in GoalPath.

Email address

Currently . You'll confirm the change from your inbox before it takes effect.

Password

At least 12 characters, with uppercase and lowercase letters, a number and a symbol.

Methodology

A complete, plain-language account of every formula and mechanism this tool uses — written so a new user can understand exactly how a number on a results page was produced, not just what it means.

1. Overview & philosophy

GoalPath derives a household's recommended portfolio allocation from its actual goals, rather than from a generic risk-tolerance questionnaire. Every dollar a household holds is, conceptually, earmarked to fund something — a goal with a dollar amount and a date — or it isn't earmarked to anything yet (surplus). The tool prices each of those commitments individually, in present-value terms, and the household's overall recommended mix of return-generating versus risk-managing assets falls directly out of that pricing: money needed soon sits in conservative assets, money needed far off (or not needed at all yet) sits in growth assets. Nothing about the recommended allocation is set by hand — it's a mechanical consequence of the goals, the assumptions, and the money already on hand.

2. Goal categories

Every goal falls into one of four categories:

  • Core Lifestyle — essential, recurring household spending (living expenses, healthcare, a specific recurring cost like club dues). Priced using the rolling protected floor described in Section 4. Multiple Core Lifestyle goals can run simultaneously — e.g. general spending alongside a separate healthcare goal with its own inflation rate — each with its own protected-years window.
  • Discretionary, Family, and Philanthropy — one-time or multi-year goals (a car, a wedding gift, a charitable pledge) priced with the standard 0–15 year glidepath described in Section 3.

3. The standard glidepath

Discretionary, Family, and Philanthropy goals are priced against a reference curve that maps years until the goal is needed to a recommended return-generating percentage today. The curve is 0% return-generating at 0–2 years out, rising in steps to 100% return-generating at 15+ years out. A goal 20 years away is treated the same as one 15 years away (100% return-generating) — the curve doesn't extend past 15 years, on the premise that risk capacity doesn't keep increasing indefinitely just because a goal is very distant. Between the defined points the curve is linearly interpolated, so a goal 4.5 years out gets a blended return-generating percentage between the 4-year and 5-year points.

For a standard goal, the household's asset earmarked to it — if a specific dollar figure was entered — or its present value if not, is split into return-generating and risk-managing dollars using that percentage, evaluated at today's distance from the goal.

4. The rolling protected floor (Core Lifestyle)

Core Lifestyle goals use a fundamentally different, more precise mechanism than the standard glidepath: a rolling protected reserve, applied independently to every individual dollar of spending, for every year of the goal.

Each Core Lifestyle goal has a protected-years setting — how many years before a dollar is actually spent that it should already be sitting in risk-managing assets. For a dollar due to be spent in year y, with a protected-years window of p:

  • The final year before spending sits in cash (1 year).
  • The remaining years inside the protected window (up to p−1 years) sit in risk-managing assets.
  • Every year before the protected window begins — i.e. from today until the dollar enters its own protected window — sits in return-generating assets.

This is genuinely rolling, not assigned once at goal creation: a dollar due in year 20 with a 7-year protected window spends its first 13 years in return-generating assets, then rolls into risk-managing assets, then into cash for its final year — re-evaluated continuously as time passes, not locked in on day one. If protected-years is set equal to a goal's full duration, every dollar of that goal is inside its protected window for its entire life, and the goal never benefits from return-generating growth at all — a legitimate, more conservative choice, but a materially different one from a typical rolling window.

Multiple Core Lifestyle goals can run in the same years simultaneously, each with its own protected-years setting and its own inflation rate — see Section 5 for how income is shared across them.

5. Income netting

Income sources (Social Security, pensions, paychecks) offset Core Lifestyle spending specifically — they are not netted against Discretionary, Family, or Philanthropy goals, which are always priced gross. When more than one Core Lifestyle goal is active in the same year, income is netted proportionally across all of them by that year's gross spending share, rather than being subtracted from each goal independently (which would let a large goal exhaust the income and unfairly zero out a smaller one). Concretely, for a given year: factor = max(0, totalGrossLifestyleSpending − totalIncome) / totalGrossLifestyleSpending, and each goal's net need for that year is its own gross spending times that same factor.

6. Inflation & per-goal overrides

Every goal's spending amount grows forward from today using an inflation rate — by default the global inflation assumption on the Assumptions page, compounded as amount × (1+inflation)^(year−1) (year 1 uses the amount as entered, with no growth yet applied). Any goal can instead be given its own inflation override, replacing the global rate for that goal only — useful for a goal like healthcare spending that's expected to grow faster than general inflation.

7. Present value & discounting

Every goal's year-by-year nominal spending schedule (its "ladder") is discounted back to today using compound growth at the rate appropriate to whichever bucket that dollar sits in for each year of its life, per the rolling floor (Section 4) or the standard glidepath (Section 3). A goal's present value is the sum of all of its ladder entries, each discounted individually — not one blended rate applied to the total. This is why present value, funding ratio, and the recommended allocation are all internally consistent: they're all derived from the same year-by-year ladder.

8. Household allocation over time

The "Projected allocation over time" chart answers a different question than the household summary snapshot: not "what should the whole portfolio look like today," but "how does the allocation of money already earmarked to known goals evolve as those goals get funded and consumed." It's built from every goal's individual ladder entries (each a dated dollar amount with a present value), pooled into one set of tranches. For any vantage year t, the tool sums every tranche not yet due (year > t) into cash / risk-managing / return-generating buckets, using each tranche's own glidepath or rolling-floor position evaluated at that vantage point — not fixed at goal creation. For a Discretionary, Family, or Philanthropy goal with a specific earmarked-asset figure, its tranches are scaled so they total that figure rather than its present value (the same base Section 3 uses), so at year 0 this projection matches the household summary exactly. The chart's x-axis runs exactly to the household's horizon (the latest of the plan horizon or any goal's own end year) — no padding beyond that.

9. Uncommitted surplus & recommended allocation

Any investable assets beyond what all of a household's goals need, in present-value terms, are uncommitted surplus — not tied to any specific future date. Surplus is treated as 100% return-generating, the same principle already applied to any dollar not earmarked to a near-term need. This is added as a standing tranche with no due date within the horizon (so it always resolves to 100% return-generating for the projection in Section 8 too) and is shown as its own line, "Uncommitted surplus," in the household summary's category breakdown — never silently folded in without being made visible.

10. Household summary & expected return

The Household Summary's "Recommended Portfolio Allocation" donut reflects the household's entire investable asset base — every goal's present-value-weighted split, plus uncommitted surplus at 100% return-generating (Section 9). The funding ratio is total investable assets divided by total goal present value. The expected return used in discounting is a blended figure: cash dollars at the cash rate, risk-managing-minus-cash dollars at the risk-managing rate, and return-generating-plus-surplus dollars at the return-generating rate, weighted by today's dollar split.

11. Minimum volatility portfolio

Only shown when the funding ratio is at least 100%. Using the household's actual nominal year-by-year spending schedule and total assets, the tool solves — by bisection — for the minimum required blended return that still funds every goal, then derives the return-generating/risk-managing split implied by that minimum return: wRG = (requiredReturn − rm) / (rg − rm), clamped to 0–100%. This is compared against the glidepath-recommended split so an advisor can see how much more conservative a fully-funded household could afford to be.

12. Monte Carlo simulation

Runs 1,000 independent trials over the household's horizon. Each year, every trial uses the same policy allocation (from Section 8's projection, evaluated at that year) but draws its own random annual return from a normal distribution parameterized by the blended mean and variance of that year's return-generating/risk-managing mix, including their volatility and correlation assumptions. Each trial withdraws that year's need (Section 13's schedule) from its own running balance, and adds back any income in excess of that year's gross Core Lifestyle spending — income only offsets Core Lifestyle goals (Section 5), so anything beyond that is reinvested rather than discarded, the same treatment the withdrawal-sequencing projection gives it (Section 17); a trial "succeeds" if it never runs out of money. The fan chart's percentile columns (5th/25th/50th/75th/95th) are computed independently for each year from the distribution of trial balances that year — not tracked along any single path — which is why the lower percentiles can flatten at zero for many years while the upper ones are still climbing.

13. Detailed cash flow

A year-by-year sources-and-uses table: beginning portfolio value, each income source (with a subtotal), each goal's gross distribution (with a subtotal), federal tax if enabled (Section 15), a net cash flow line (income minus distributions minus tax — shown in red when negative, meaning that year's spending exceeded income and had to come from the portfolio), and an ending value taken directly from that year's median Monte Carlo balance. Investment growth isn't shown as its own line; it's implicit in the gap between net cash flow and the ending value, which is guaranteed to reconcile exactly since the ending value is real simulation output, not a separate estimate.

14. Year-by-year goals report

Every goal's nominal spending, by year and category. Core Lifestyle figures are net of income (Section 5); Discretionary, Family, and Philanthropy are always shown gross, consistent with how income netting works everywhere else.

15. Federal tax estimate

On by default for every client (can be turned off per client on the Tax Profile tab). Estimates federal, ordinary-income tax only — see the Federal Tax Reference on the Assumptions page for the exact bracket tables, standard deductions, and Social Security thresholds currently in use. For each year, the tool computes taxable income as: other ordinary income (pensions, annuities, paychecks) + that year's portfolio withdrawal + the taxable portion of Social Security (via the IRS "provisional income" formula) − the standard deduction (plus the additional amount for a client 65 or older). Federal tax is applied to that taxable income using the real marginal bracket table for the household's filing status. Because the withdrawal needed to cover spending depends on the tax it generates, and the tax depends on the withdrawal, the tool solves this with fixed-point iteration each year until it converges (typically in a handful of iterations) — computed once per year, not per Monte Carlo trial, so there's no performance cost. Bracket thresholds and the standard deduction are grown forward using the household's inflation assumption, so a multi-decade projection doesn't drift into artificial bracket creep.

16. Required minimum distributions

Applies to any asset account flagged "Traditional IRA / 401(k)" on the Financials tab. RMD start age follows SECURE 2.0 §107 by birth year: 73 for clients born 1951–1959, 75 for clients born 1960 or later. Each year's RMD equals that account balance at the start of the year divided by the IRS Uniform Lifetime Table divisor for the client's age that year — the age they turn during that calendar year, on the same "year 1 = next year" calendar the plan horizon uses, which also governs when the 65+ additional standard deduction begins (see the Assumptions page for the full table). The traditional balance used for this calculation is projected forward deterministically, at the household's current blended expected return held constant — not simulated with random annual returns the way the portfolio itself is in Monte Carlo. Critically, an RMD is taxed as ordinary income even in a year the household doesn't otherwise need to draw from the portfolio — the mandatory distribution still generates a real tax bill, which the tool still grosses up for, even though it won't force additional spending beyond covering that tax.

17. Withdrawal sequencing

Once federal tax is being estimated, each year's withdrawal is sequenced across a household's categorized accounts in a specific order: taxable accounts first, then traditional (tax-deferred), then Roth last — the standard tax-efficient convention, since it lets Roth balances compound tax-free the longest. A required minimum distribution (Section 16) is forced out of the traditional bucket ahead of this order, regardless of how much is available elsewhere, since that's a legal requirement rather than a preference. Roth withdrawals are treated as entirely tax-free. Traditional withdrawals (including RMDs) and taxable-account withdrawals are both currently treated as fully ordinary-taxable — see Section 18 for why. Any account left uncategorized on the Financials tab defaults to the taxable bucket, a deliberately conservative choice so an uncategorized account can never accidentally receive Roth-like tax-free treatment.

18. Known limitations

These are deliberate, disclosed simplifications — not oversights — but worth stating plainly in one place:

  • No state or local income tax. Federal only.
  • No capital gains or qualified dividend treatment. A taxable-account withdrawal is taxed as if it were 100% ordinary income; the tool has no cost-basis tracking, so it can't distinguish a tax-free return of principal from a taxable gain.
  • No annual interest/dividend income from taxable accounts. A taxable account that's never withdrawn from shows no tax impact, even though in reality it likely throws off taxable interest and dividends every year.
  • No Alternative Minimum Tax or Medicare IRMAA surcharges.
  • No fees. Neither advisory fees nor fund expense ratios are modeled.
  • The deterministic RMD and withdrawal-sequencing projections use a fixed, held-constant expected return — they are not re-simulated with random annual returns the way the overall portfolio is in Monte Carlo, so they don't reflect market volatility.
  • This is a hypothetical illustration, not a comprehensive financial plan — it addresses goal funding, asset allocation, and (optionally) a simplified federal tax estimate. It does not address required-minimum-distribution planning strategy, Social Security claiming strategy, insurance, or estate planning, and nothing in this tool constitutes investment, tax, or legal advice.